Ford (F) is scheduled to release Q1 earnings this Thursday January 28th, before the market opens.
Average analyst estimates for the US Automaker are $.26/share in EPS and $32.6 billion in Revenue. Thirteen analysts track the stock with four upward EPS revisions in the last 30 days and no downward EPS revisions in the last 30 days.
Last quarter, Ford beat average analysts expectations by.38/share or 317%, .26/share vs. -.12/share.
I always find this a tough period waiting to see if the company is going meet, exceed, or miss their earnings estimates. One thing I have discovered of value is to analyze sentiment moves in a stock ahead of the company’s earnings release. In the case of Ford, I will use the piqqem sentiment index for Ford to see how sentiment has changed in the last quarter, for the months within that quarter, and from the end of the reporting quarter thru today.
I’m looking for moves or changes that may foreshadow the earning release. (piqqem leverages the ‘wisdom of crowds’ by allowing its users to vote on the price direction of a stock and then applies its own propriety factors to calculate sentiment for a security. In their model, -100 is the lowest and 100 is the highest sentiment).
Sentiment for Ford
Source Piqqem
The above chart shows Ford’s sentiment rising by 26 pts from November 30, 2009 thru today. The chart also shows a 15 pt increase in sentiment from the end of Q4 thru today. This last indicator has historically been the most accurate indicator regarding an earnings surprise, both upside and downside. Sentiment for the S&P is flat so far this year and down 13 pts from November 30, 2009 thru today. On the Piqqem scale, Ford’s sentiment rating of 47.76 is considered a buy and its absolute sentiment indicates a high quality stock. Only Ford knows their actual results, but their current sentiment points to Ford releasing earnings above estimates on Thursday.
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