Ford (F) is scheduled to release Q1 earnings this Thursday January 28th, before the market opens.
Average analyst estimates for the US Automaker are $.26/share in EPS and $32.6 billion in Revenue. Thirteen analysts track the stock with four upward EPS revisions in the last 30 days and no downward EPS revisions in the last 30 days.
Last quarter, Ford beat average analysts expectations by.38/share or 317%, .26/share vs. -.12/share.
I always find this a tough period waiting to see if the company is going meet, exceed, or miss their earnings estimates. One thing I have discovered of value is to analyze sentiment moves in a stock ahead of the company’s earnings release. In the case of Ford, I will use the piqqem sentiment index for Ford to see how sentiment has changed in the last quarter, for the months within that quarter, and from the end of the reporting quarter thru today.
I’m looking for moves or changes that may foreshadow the earning release. (piqqem leverages the ‘wisdom of crowds’ by allowing its users to vote on the price direction of a stock and then applies its own propriety factors to calculate sentiment for a security. In their model, -100 is the lowest and 100 is the highest sentiment).
Sentiment for Ford
Source Piqqem
The above chart shows Ford’s sentiment rising by 26 pts from November 30, 2009 thru today. The chart also shows a 15 pt increase in sentiment from the end of Q4 thru today. This last indicator has historically been the most accurate indicator regarding an earnings surprise, both upside and downside. Sentiment for the S&P is flat so far this year and down 13 pts from November 30, 2009 thru today. On the Piqqem scale, Ford’s sentiment rating of 47.76 is considered a buy and its absolute sentiment indicates a high quality stock. Only Ford knows their actual results, but their current sentiment points to Ford releasing earnings above estimates on Thursday.
Comments
Posted by Caroline on April 28, 2010 at 9pm
We used to hear Ford as one of the stable Automaker which didn't avail for bail out even in the most challenging time - the recession.
Ford Automaker made a $2.1 billion revenue this last quarter. This earnings put the automaker in the number 2 standing of American carmakers. Ford stands out as the only <a title=" Ford automaker announces $2.1 billion profit" href=" http://www.cardealexpert.com/news-information/auto-news/ford-auto-makers-profit/">automaker</a> that didn't take the governments bailouts which were being offered, and is exhibiting to benefit from this decision. The business is planning on issuing more compact a lot more efficient vehicle models, steering from their large truck and SUV styles we have come to affiliate the business with. Although the business is showing gains and profit, they are not out of the woods yet. They nevertheless owe a lot more debt than cash they have accessible, however, if things proceed within the direction they are going, it won't take long before they are fully in the black.