Signaling an End to the Chip Recession, Intel’s Sentiment Roars Ahead of Earnings

Intel (INTC) is scheduled to release Q1 earnings this Tuesday April 13th, after the market close.

Average analyst estimates for the world’s largest chipmaker are $.38/share in EPS and $9.82 billion in Revenue.  Forty-one analysts track the stock with eight upward EPS revisions in the last 30 days and no downward EPS revisions in the last 30 days. Last quarter, Intel beat average analysts expectations by .10/share, .40 vs. .30/share.

I always find this a tough period waiting to see if the company is going meet, exceed, or miss their earnings estimates.  One thing I have discovered of value is to analyze sentiment moves in a stock ahead of the company’s earnings release.  In the case of Intel, I will use the piqqem sentiment index for Intel to see how sentiment has changed in the last quarter, for the months within that quarter, and from the end of the reporting quarter thru today.  I’m looking for moves or changes that may foreshadow the earning release. 

Piqqem leverages the ‘wisdom of crowds’ by allowing its users to vote on the price direction of a stock and then applies its own propriety factors to calculate sentiment for a security. In their model, -100 is the lowest and 100 is the highest sentiment.

Sentiment for Intel

Source Piqqem

 Is Intel’s strong sentiment a sign that the chip recession is finally over?

The above chart shows Intel’s sentiment increasing by 11 pts from the beginning of last quarter.  Sentiment for the S&P is down 7 pts in the same period, so Intel’s sentiment increase is even more impressive given overall market conditions.  On the Piqqem scale, Intel’s sentiment rating of 43.79 is considered a strong buy and its absolute sentiment indicates a high quality stock. Only Intel knows their actual results, but current sentiment points to Intel delivering good news on Tuesday.