Google (GOOG) is scheduled to release Q1 earnings this Thursday April 15th, after the market close. Average analyst estimates for the search giant are $6.57/share in EPS and $4.93 billion in Revenue. Thirty-five analysts track the stock with six upward EPS revisions in the last 30 days and no downward EPS revisions in the last 30 days. Last quarter, Google beat average analysts expectations by .31/share, 6.79/share vs. 6.48/share.
I always find this a tough period waiting to see if the company is going meet, exceed, or miss their earnings estimates. One thing I have discovered of value is to analyze sentiment moves in a stock ahead of the company’s earnings release. In the case of Google, I will use the piqqem sentiment index for Google to see how sentiment has changed in the last quarter, for the months within that quarter, and from the end of the reporting quarter thru today.
I’m looking for moves or changes that may foreshadow the earning release. (piqqem leverages the ‘wisdom of crowds’ by allowing its users to vote on the price direction of a stock and then applies its own propriety factors to calculate sentiment for a security. In their model, -100 is the lowest and 100 is the highest sentiment).
Sentiment for Google
Source Piqqem
Will Google continue its dominance over Yahoo! (YHOO) and Microsoft (MSFT) in search? Or will its clash with Apple (AAPL) cause the search giant to lose focus?
The above chart shows Google’s sentiment dropping by 20 pts from the beginning of the quarter thru today. As a comparison, sentiment for the NASDAQ index dropped 20 pts in the same period, so some of Google’s downward sentiment movement can be attributed to the market. On the Piqqem scale, Google’s sentiment rating of 26.95 is considered a buy and absolute sentiment indicates a quality stock. Only Google knows their actual results, but current sentiment points to the search giant delivering lackluster news on Thursday.
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