Google (GOOG) is scheduled to release Q2 earnings this Thursday July 15th, after the market close. Average analyst estimates for the Search giant are $6.53/share in EPS and $4.99 billion in Revenue. Thirty-six analysts track the stock with two upward EPS revisions in the last 30 days and three downward EPS revision in the last 30 days. Last quarter, Google beat average analyst expectations by.16/share, 6.76/share vs. 6.60/share.
Now let’s look at the sentiment for Google to see if we can learn anything ahead of their earnings release. We will use sentiment captured by Piqqem to determine Google’s outlook for this quarter’s earnings. Piqqem uses a -100 to 100 scale and leverages the wisdom of crowds and its own proprietary algorithms to capture and calculate sentiment. Last quarter sentiment for Google predicted a ho-hum quarter and the company delivered a ho-hum quarter.
Previous Google Sentiment Results
| Quarter End | Release Date | Sentiment Before Release | Sentiment Trend in Quarter | Sentiment Indication | Earnings Result |
| 31-Mar-09 | 15-Apr-09 | 28.87 | Falling | Neutral | Positive- 4.7% Upside |
| 30-Jun-09 | 16-Jul-09 | 38.44 | Rising | Positive | Positive - 5.3% Upside |
| 30-Sep-09 | 15-Oct-09 | 37.92 | Neutral | Positive | Positive - 8.7% Upside |
| 31-Dec-09 | 21-Jan-10 | 41.34 | Rising | Positive | Positive - 4.8% Upside |
| 31-Mar-10 | 15-Apr-10 | 26.95 | Falling | Neutral | Positive - 2.4% Upside |
| 30-Jun-10 | 15-Jul-10 | 27.12 | Neutral | Neutral | ? |
Any sentiment rating above 25 is considered positive, below 0 is considered negative, while 0-25 is considered neutral. Changes in sentiment are also crucial in understanding and interpreting a company’s sentiment ahead of an event like earnings. Finally, market forces need to be considered to make sure overall market sentiment changes are not overly influencing a stock’s individual sentiment.
Google is also part of the Piqqem Technology Sentiment Index which tracks sentiment for 28 technology stocks in the Hardware & Networking, Software & Gaming, Internet & Mobile, and Semiconductor Sectors. Sentiment for the internet & mobile sector has shown growing strength, but remains the weakest technology sector behind Hardware, Semiconductor, and Software. So this is neutral for Google.
Source Piqqem
Google’s sentiment has been stuck in a lower range of high 20’s vs. low 40’s at the end of last year ever since the start of the Apple (AAPL) wars.
The above chart shows Google’s sentiment as relatively flat from the beginning of the quarter thru today. Sentiment did rebound from a low of 22.88 on April 30 to a high of 29.65. As a comparison, sentiment for the Piqqem Technology Index rose 2 pts in the same period, which means Google’s flat sentiment was not strongly influenced by market forces. On the Piqqem scale, Google’s sentiment rating of 27.12 is considered positive and its absolute sentiment indicates a quality stock. Only Google knows their actual results, but current sentiment points to the Search giant delivering lackluster results on Thursday.
I will be posting earnings reports next week on IBM (IBM), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Yahoo! (YHOO), EMC (EMC), and Netflix (NFLX) so check back to see these results and if you have an opinion you can vote at Piqqem.
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