Brocade (BRCD) is scheduled to release Q2 earnings this Thursday May 20th, after the market close. Average analyst estimates for the network provider are $.12/share in EPS and $504.55 million in Revenue. Twenty-four analysts track the stock with six upward EPS revisions in the last 30 days and no downward EPS revisions in the last 30 days. Last quarter, Brocade beat average analyst expectations by.04/share, .19/share vs. .15/share.
Now let’s look at the sentiment for Brocade to see if we can learn anything ahead of their earnings release. We will use sentiment captured by piqqem to determine Brocade’s outlook for earnings. Piqqem uses a -100 to 100 scale and leverages the wisdom of crowds to capture and calculate sentiment.
Any sentiment rating above 25 is considered good, below 0 is considered negative, while 0-25 is considered neutral.
Will Brocade rise to the heights of Cisco (CSCO) and EMC (EMC), or is Brocade ready to struggle with the likes of Adaptec (ADPT) and Quantum (QTM)?
The above chart shows Brocade’s sentiment decreasing by 14 pts from the beginning of the quarter thru today. As a comparison, sentiment for the NASDAQ index dropped 1 pts in the same period, which means Brocade’s drop in sentiment was not strongly influenced by market forces. On the Piqqem scale, Brocade’s sentiment rating of 34.72 is considered a buy and its absolute sentiment indicates a high quality stock. Only Brocade knows their actual results, but current sentiment points to the network provider delivering relatively good news on Thursday.
Brocade (BRCD) is scheduled to release Q2 earnings this Thursday May 20th, after the market close. Average analyst estimates for the network provider are $.12/share in EPS and $504.55 million in Revenue.Twenty-four analysts track the stock with six upward EPS revisions in the last 30 days and no downward EPS revisions in the last 30 days. Last quarter, Brocade beat average analyst expectations by.04/share, .19/share vs. .15/share.
I always find this a tough period waiting to see if the company is going meet, exceed, or miss their earnings estimates.One thing I have discovered of value is to analyze sentiment moves in a stock ahead of the company’s earnings release.In the case of Brocade, I will use the piqqem sentiment index for Brocade to see how sentiment has changed in the last quarter, for the months within that quarter, and from the end of the reporting quarter thru today.
I’m looking for moves or changes that may foreshadow the earning release.(Piqqem leverages the ‘wisdom of crowds’ by allowing its users to vote on the price direction of a stock and then applies its own propriety factors to calculate sentiment for a security. In their model, sentiment above 25 is considered positive, sentiment below 0 is considered negative, and sentiment between 0 and 25 is considered neutral).
Will Brocade rise to the heights of Cisco (CSCO) and EMC (EMC), or is Brocade ready to struggle with the likes of Adaptec (ADPT) and Quantum (QTM)?
The above chart shows Brocade’s sentiment decreasing by 14 pts from the beginning of the quarter thru today. As a comparison, sentiment for the NASDAQ index dropped 1 pts in the same period, which means Brocade’s drop in sentiment was not strongly influenced by market forces. On the Piqqem scale, Brocade’s sentiment rating of 34.72 is considered a buy and its absolute sentiment indicates a high quality stock. Only Brocade knows their actual results, but current sentiment points to the network provider delivering relatively good news on Thursday.
Today’s major US indices ended up in a choppy session with the Dow Jones up 5.67 pts, the Nasdaq up 7.38 pts, and the S&P 500 up 1.26 pts. Stocks overcame early losses to stage a strong turnaround in the last hour. US Stocks were under pressure early with growing concerns that the European debt crisis could impact the US economy. On the technology front, the Piqqem Technology Sentiment Index was up and finished in positive territory at 27.15pts lead by a strong sentiment move in SanDisk (SNDK).
Today's Sentiment Winners & Losers
For overall stocks, the daily sentiment winners include Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) and Intuit (INTU) while the stocks dropping most in sentiment include Caterpillar (CAT) and eBay (EBAY).
About the Piqqem Technology Sentiment Index
Piqqem tracks sentiment on all securities including stocks, mutual funds, ETFs, and major market indices. The Piqqem sentiment scale runs from 100 on the high end to -100 on the low end.The actual Piqqem Technology Sentiment Index is proprietary blend of technology stocks covering the hardware, internet & mobile, software & gaming, and semiconductor sectors.
The ongoing battle between Apple (AAPL) and Adobe (ADBE) began to heat up earlier this year after it became clear that the iPad would not support Flash. The two companies brought the fight to the public recently, and I wanted to try a different approach to track how the companies are doing, using the Wisdom of Crowds principle.
To do this, I teamed up with Jett Winter, the CEO of Piqqem (pronounced Pick 'em), a company that uses Wisdom of Crowds to track company stocks. The basic principle is that the aggregation of information from the many is often more accurate than the information from a few.
Using sophisticated algorithms to parse the data, Piqqem captures what Winter calls Sentiment. That means that my vote for a company means as much as a Wall Street analyst, which appeals to some people who don't necessarily feel that analysts always make the right decisions.
Despite persistent rumors since then that Adobe would bring Flash to the iPhone, the company has never been able to satisfy Apple with the technology. In 2010, we are still without Flash for the iPhone OS.
With Apple's expanding mobile product line, that means more today than it did then. We now have the iPhone, iPod touch and iPad all using the iPhone OS.
2010 signals the end of the road for Flash on iPhone OS
If there was any hope of Flash coming to the iPhone OS, that is surely gone now. In 2010, Apple launched the iPad without support for Adobe's technology, which signaled to most technology watchers that it would never come to the platform.
After changing its iPhone Developer License Agreement in April, forbidding developers from using any other technology to build apps for the iPhone OS, Apple effectively killed Adobe's plans to allow developers to build apps using Flash. In fact, Adobe said a short time later that it would abandon the technology.
With Steve Jobs and the founders of Adobe both speaking out publicly on the fight about Flash and who is more "open" with technology, a federal antitrust probe, apparently started after Adobe lodged a complaint, and a new iPhone OS in the works, who does the average person think is winning this fight?
Wisdom of Crowds Creates Sentiment
By using the sentiment data collected from Piqqem over the last several months we can get a clear idea of how users from all walks of life feel about Apple and Adobe's stock. While the sentiment of the two companies is not a direct reflection of its stock price, Piqqem's sentiment values have been an accurate earnings surprise and expectations indicator in the last 3 financial quarters for Apple and for Adobe.
The above chart shows Apple's sentiment lead growing from 15 points at the end of February to a dramatic 30 point lead as of May 14, 2010. We can assume that general market forces are already captured in both stocks, so there is no need to adjust for markets factors. Looking at this analysis, the scales are most certainly tipped in the favor of Apple. The war may be a long way from over, but based on current sentiment, Apple has delivered a blow to Adobe's mobile Flash strategy.
Cisco (CSCO) is scheduled to release Q3 earnings this Wednesday May 12th, after the market close. Average analyst estimates for the network giant are $.39/share in EPS and $10.23 billion in Revenue.Thirty-two analysts track the stock with six upward EPS revisions in the last 30 days and no downward EPS revisions in the last 30 days. Last quarter, Cisco beat average analyst expectations by.05/share, .40/share vs. .35/share.
I always find this a tough period waiting to see if the company is going meet, exceed, or miss their earnings estimates.One thing I have discovered of value is to analyze sentiment moves in a stock ahead of the company’s earnings release.In the case of Cisco, I will use the piqqem sentiment index for Cisco to see how sentiment has changed in the last quarter, for the months within that quarter, and from the end of the reporting quarter thru today.
I’m looking for moves or changes that may foreshadow the earning release.(piqqem leverages the ‘wisdom of crowds’ by allowing its users to vote on the price direction of a stock and then applies its own propriety factors to calculate sentiment for a security. In their model, -100 is the lowest and 100 is the highest sentiment).
Will Cisco rise to the heights of IBM (IBM) and Hewlett Packard (HPQ), or is Cisco ready to follow a downward path to Brocade (BRCD)?
The above chart shows Cisco’s sentiment increasing by 10 pts from the beginning of the quarter thru today. As a comparison, sentiment for the NASDAQ index dropped 3 pts in the same period, which makes Cisco’s strong sentiment even more impressive. On the Piqqem scale, Cisco’s sentiment rating of 40.35 is considered a buy and its absolute sentiment indicates a high quality stock. Only Cisco knows their actual results, but current sentiment points to the network giant delivering good news on Wednesday.
Electronic Arts (ERTS) is scheduled to release Q4 earnings this Tuesday May 11th, after the market close. Average analyst estimates for the game developer are $.05/share in EPS and $835 million in Revenue.Twenty-six analysts track the stock with five upward EPS revisions in the last 30 days and no downward EPS revisions in the last 30 days. Last quarter, Electronic Arts beat average analysts expectations by.02/share, .33/share vs. .31/share.
I always find this a tough period waiting to see if the company is going meet, exceed, or miss their earnings estimates.One thing I have discovered of value is to analyze sentiment moves in a stock ahead of the company’s earnings release.In the case of Electronic Arts, I will use the piqqem sentiment index for Electronic Arts to see how sentiment has changed in the last quarter, for the months within that quarter, and from the end of the reporting quarter thru today.
I’m looking for moves or changes that may foreshadow the earning release.(piqqem leverages the ‘wisdom of crowds’ by allowing its users to vote on the price direction of a stock and then applies its own propriety factors to calculate sentiment for a security. In their model, -100 is the lowest and 100 is the highest sentiment).
Will Electronic Arts remain stuck in a trading range like Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) and THQ (THQI), or is Electronic Arts ready to soar with the likes of Microsoft (MSFT)?
The above chart shows Electronic Arts’ sentiment decreasing by 6 pts from the beginning of the quarter thru today. As a comparison, sentiment for the NASDAQ index dropped 13 pts in the same period, which makes some of Electronic Arts’ sentiment drop attributable to the overall market. On the Piqqem scale, Electronic Arts’ sentiment rating of 16 is considered a hold and its absolute sentiment indicates a medium quality stock. Only Electronic Arts knows their actual results, but current sentiment points to the game developer delivering lackluster results on Wednesday.
Piqqem released its weekly sentiment for the week ending May 7, 2010 and it shows overall market sentiment remaining flat and merging with the 30 day moving average. After a dreadful week in the US equity markets, sentiment for all major indices was down or flat with the exception of the Nasdaq which was up for the week. Overall market sentiment is at 7.09 and was essentially flat for the week.On an absolute scale, a 7 pt piqqem sentiment rating is relatively weak.The piqqem sentiment index has been heading down for many weeks leading to the market correction last week. The big question is whether sentiment will make a move to the positive in the upcoming weeks. In a positive signal for the week, there were 10 stocks increasing in sentiment for every 7 stocks decreasing in sentiment.
Piqqem tracks sentiment on all securities including stocks, mutual funds, ETFs, and major market indices. The Piqqem sentiment scale runs from 100 on the high end to -100 on the low end.The actual Piqqem Market Sentiment Index is proprietary blend of multiple factors including sentiment specific to the four major indices: Dow Jones 30(.DJI), S&P 500 (.INX), Nasdaq 100 (.IXIC), Russell 2000 (IWM).
Ever wonder who’s really winning in the war of Apple (AAPL) vs. Google (GOOG)? If you look at the facts it is really quite confusing.Apple has a $221 Billion market cap, while Google’s market cap is still impressive at $158 Billion. Google has stronger gross margins of 63% with a net income as a percentage of revenue at 29.6%, while Apple has lower gross margins of 41.67% with a net income as a percentage of revenue at 22.77%. Apple is trading at 82% of it 52 week trading range, while Google is trading at 47% of its 52 week trading range. Apple appears to have the edge, but Google’s gross margin and net income remain very compelling.
To further cloud the issue, let’s look at some very recent articles. Marketwatch reported yesterday that Google wins search share as Yahoo! (YHOO) and Microsoft (MSFT) decline, while Fortune reports that Apple ranks No. 4 in e-retailing survey and finally, the New York Times delivers an article describing Apple as the new class bully with its handling of the Adobe (ADBE) Flash situation in Has Apple Lost Its Cool. Looking at the recent press, it’s hard to pick a winner in the Apple vs. Google contest. Is Apple really a bully or is everyone just getting jealous of their product and earnings winning streak.
When the facts become blurred, I like to look at the comparative sentiment over time of both securities.In this case, I will analyze a Google Apple sentiment pair by comparing their sentiment over the last six months and analyzing whether the sentiment delta is increasing, decreasing, or even crossing between the two stocks. In this case, I will use sentiment from Piqqem to conduct the analysis.
I’m looking for moves or changes that clearly indicate who is winning the early battles.(piqqem leverages the ‘wisdom of crowds’ by allowing its users to vote on the price direction of a stock and then applies its own propriety factors to calculate sentiment for a security. In their model, -100 is the lowest and 100 is the highest sentiment).
The above chart shows Apple’s sentiment lead growing from 10 pts at the end of November to a dramatic 22 pt lead at the end of March. The delta has narrowed slightly, but Apple today still maintains a 20 pt sentiment advantage over Google.We can assume that general market forces are already captured in both stocks, so there is no need to adjust for markets factors. Looking at this analysis, the scales are most certainly tipped in the favor of Apple. The war may be a long way from over, but based on current sentiment Apple is winning the early battles against Google.
Activision (ATVI) is scheduled to release Q1 earnings this Thursday May 6th, after the market close. Average analyst estimates for the WOW developer are $.04/share in EPS and $567 million in Revenue.Twenty-six analysts track the stock with nine upward EPS revisions in the last 30 days and no downward EPS revisions in the last 30 days. Last quarter, Activision beat average analysts expectations by.05/share, .49/share vs. .44/share.
I always find this a tough period waiting to see if the company is going meet, exceed, or miss their earnings estimates.One thing I have discovered of value is to analyze sentiment moves in a stock ahead of the company’s earnings release.In the case of Activision, I will use the piqqem sentiment index for Activision to see how sentiment has changed in the last quarter, for the months within that quarter, and from the end of the reporting quarter thru today.
I’m looking for moves or changes that may foreshadow the earning release.(piqqem leverages the ‘wisdom of crowds’ by allowing its users to vote on the price direction of a stock and then applies its own propriety factors to calculate sentiment for a security. In their model, -100 is the lowest and 100 is the highest sentiment).
Will Activision remain stuck in a trading range like Microsoft (MSFT) and Electronic Arts (ERTS).Or is Activision ready to soar with the likes of Walt Disney (DIS)?
The above chart shows Activision’s sentiment remaining flat from the beginning of the quarter thru today. As a comparison, sentiment for the NASDAQ index dropped 14 pts in the same period, which makes Activision’s strong sentiment even more impressive. On the Piqqem scale, Activision’s sentiment rating of 38.79 is considered a buy and its absolute sentiment indicates a high quality stock. Only Activision knows their actual results, but current sentiment points to the game developer delivering good news on Wednesday.
Piqqem released its weekly sentiment for the week ending April 30, 2010 and it shows overall market sentiment moving below the 30 day moving average. The move was lead by a decline in all four major indices. Overall market sentiment is at 6.81 down 1.8 pts in the last week.The sentiment trend implies that market confidence has indicates continued market consolidation in the near term.In a negative signal for the week, there were 3 stocks decreasing in sentiment for every 2 stocks increasing in sentiment.
Piqqem tracks sentiment on all securities including stocks, mutual funds, ETFs, and major market indices. The Piqqem sentiment scale runs from 100 on the high end to -100 on the low end.The actual Piqqem Market Sentiment Index is proprietary blend of multiple factors including sentiment specific to the four major indices: Dow Jones 30(^DJI), S&P 500 (^SPX), Nasdaq 100 (^IXIC), Russell 2000 (^RUT).
