Have you ever wondered whether stock sentiment can predict a stock’s future price movement? Let’s take a look at the chart for Brocade (BRCD) since the beginning of the year.  From January 23rd thru January 30th^rd, sentiment as measured by Piqqem rose by 24 pts from 27 pts to an impressive 51pts. The price during that same period was down .54 from 7.41 to 6.87 which was uneventful. If we look a little further we will then see that the price of Brocade dropped on February 23^rd to $5.36 and the price has hovered just below $6 since, but sentiment has remained strong with a robust 49 pt rating. Brocade is also number 5 on the Piqqem top rated list.  

The crowd remains bullish on this stock and is predicting a price rise, but will they be right?

About the Piqqem Sentiment Trading Simulator

Piqqem offers a Sentiment Trading Simulator that allows you to test different trading strategies against historical sentiment and price data. Once you find a strategy that you like, you can create a portfolio they will trade automatically on your sentiment strategy and rules.

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Have you ever wondered whether stock sentiment can predict a stock’s future price movement? Let’s take a look at the chart for Sirius (SIRI) over the past 60 days. From January 17^th thru January 23^rd, sentiment as measured by Piqqem rose dramatically by 58 pts from an unimpressive 5 pts to an impressive 63 pts. The price during that same period rose only .02 from .67 to .69 which was uneventful. If we look a little further we will then see that the price of Sirius stock broke out from January 26^th thru February 18^th with a .71 to 1.13 price rise. This represents a 59% rise which was well after the sentiment move.

Was the crowd right in predicting the price move or just lucky?

About the Piqqem Sentiment Trading Simulator

Piqqem offers a Sentiment Trading Simulator that allows you to test different trading strategies against historical sentiment and price data. Once you find a strategy that you like, you can create a portfolio they will trade automatically on your sentiment strategy and rules.

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Market Sentiment Moves Upward For the Week of March 5, 2010

Piqqem released its weekly sentiment update today and shows overall market sentiment moving up for the week. As of March 5, 2010, overall market sentiment is at 9.12 pts up 3 pts from last week and is now only .5 pts below the 30 Day Moving Sentiment Average.  The sentiment trend implies that market confidence is beginning to strengthen as concerns ease about the overall economic recovery.  For a further Bullish move to occur, we would like to see the Piqqem Market Sentiment Index breakout above the 30 day moving average and demonstrate renewed broad based optimism for a strong employment driven recovery.

This Week’s Sentiment Winners & Losers

For individual stocks, our list of weekly winners include Equity Residential (EQR) up 7 pts., WalMart (WMT) up 5 pts., and Borders (BGP) up 4 pts. On the other end, our list of weekly losers include Time-Warner Cable (TWC) down 6 pts, Mattel (MAT) down 4 pts, and the New York Times (NYT) down 4 pts.

The overall Piqqem sentiment leaders include Sirius (SIRI), Ford (F), and E-Trade (ETFC), while the lowest rated stocks are headed by Toyota (TM), Fannie Mae (FNM), and the Washington Post (WPO).

About the Piqqem Market Sentiment Index

Piqqem tracks sentiment on all securities including stocks, mutual funds, ETFs, and major market indices. The Piqqem sentiment scale runs from 100 on the high end to -100 on the low end. Market Sentiment Index is proprietary blend of multiple factors including sentiment specific to the four major indices: Dow Jones 30 (^DJI), S&P 500 (^SPX), Nasdaq 100 (^IXIC), Russell 2000 (^RUT).

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Piqqem released its weekly sentiment update today and shows overall market sentiment breaking down for the week. As of February 26, 2010, overall market sentiment is at 5.45 pts down 4 pts from last week and is now 6 pts below the 50 Day Moving Sentiment Average.  The sentiment trend implies that market confidence is breaking down further as concerns mount about the overall economic recovery.  For a true Bullish trend to occur, we would like to see the Piqqem Market Sentiment Index breakout above the 50 day moving average and demonstrate renewed broad based optimism for a strong employment driven recovery.

About the Piqqem Market Sentiment Index

Piqqem tracks sentiment on all securities including stocks, mutual funds, ETFs, and major market indices. The Piqqem sentiment scale runs from 100 on the high end to -100 on the low end.  As an example,  Ford (F) with its strong turnaround has a sentiment score of 51, while Fannie Mae (FNM) mired in the housing crisis has a sentiment score of -20.

The actual Piqqem Market Sentiment Index is proprietary blend of multiple factors including sentiment specific to the three major indices: Dow Jones 30 (^DJI), S&P 500 (^SPX), Nasdaq 100 (^IXIC).

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Salesforce.com (CRM) is scheduled to release Q4 earnings this Wednesday February 24th, after the market close.

Average analyst estimates for the SaaS leader are $.15/share in EPS and $342.18 million in Revenue.  Thirty analysts track the stock with no upward EPS revisions in the last 30 days and one downward EPS revision in the last 30 days.

Last quarter, Salesforce.com met average analysts expectations of .16/share.

I always find this a tough period waiting to see if the company is going meet, exceed, or miss their earnings estimates.  One thing I have discovered of value is to analyze sentiment moves in a stock ahead of the company’s earnings release.  In the case of Salesforce.com, I will use the piqqem sentiment index for Salesforce.com to see how sentiment has changed in the last quarter, for the months within that quarter, and from the end of the reporting quarter thru today.

 I’m looking for moves or changes that may foreshadow the earning release.  (piqqem leverages the ‘wisdom of crowds’ by allowing its users to vote on the price direction of a stock and then applies its own propriety factors to calculate sentiment for a security. In their model, -100 is the lowest and 100 is the highest sentiment).

Sentiment for Salesforce.com

Source Piqqem

The above chart shows Salesforce.com’s sentiment moving up 7 pts from the point of their last earnings release.  Sentiment for the S&P is down 12 pts in the same period, so Salesforce.com’s strong showing is even more impressive given overall market conditions.  On the Piqqem scale, Salesforce.com’s sentiment rating of 27.78 is considered a buy and its absolute sentiment indicates a high quality stock. Is Salesforce.com beginning to pull away from IBM, Microsoft, and Oracle in segment of Salesforce automation? Only Salesforce.com knows their actual results, but their current sentiment points to Salesforce.com delivering good news on Wednesday.

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For the week ending February 19, 2009, Toyota (TM) saw its piqqem sentiment increase by 4 pts from -22 to -18. Could the recall disaster be leveling off? Weekly movements in sentiment indicate short-term changes in the crowd perception of a stock. For the overall week, there were 88 stocks with rising sentiment while 98 stocks saw their sentiment fall.

Change in sentiment provides a timing mechanism to understand underlying changes in a security potentially ahead of a price move. For example, a large increase in sentiment should be seen as positive even if the underlying stock has a low absolute sentiment, while a large decrease in sentiment should be seen as negative even if the underlying security has a high absolute sentiment.

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Piqqem released its weekly sentiment update today and overall market sentiment continues to trend downward. As of February 19, 2010, overall market sentiment is at 9.6 pts down 2 pts from last week and is now 3.5 pts below the 50 Day Moving Sentiment Average.  The sentiment trend implies that the market is still very cautious especially with the weak US employment numbers and continued concern over default by Portugal, Ireland, Greece, and Spain.  For a true Bullish trend to occur, we would like to see the Piqqem Market Sentiment Index breakout above the 50 day moving average and demonstrate renewed broad based optimism for a strong employment driven recovery.

About the Piqqem Market Sentiment Index

Piqqem tracks sentiment on all securities including stocks, mutual funds, ETFs, and major market indices. The Piqqem sentiment scale runs from 100 on the high end to -100 on the low end.  As an example,  Apple (AAPL) with its incredible earnings performance has a sentiment score of 49, while Toyota (TM) mired in a vehicle recall nightmare has a sentiment score of -19.

The actual Piqqem Market Sentiment Index is proprietary blend of multiple factors including sentiment specific to the three major indices: Dow Jones 30 , S&P 500, Nasdaq 100.

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Dell (DELL) is scheduled to release Q4 earnings this Thursday February 18th, after the market close.

Average analyst estimates for the PC maker are $.27/share in EPS and $13.85 billion in Revenue.  Twenty-Eight analysts track the stock with two upward EPS revisions in the last 30 days and no downward EPS revisions in the last 30 days.

Last quarter, Dell missed average analysts expectations by 17.9% or .05/share, .23/share vs. .28/share.

I always find this a tough period waiting to see if the company is going meet, exceed, or miss their earnings estimates.  One thing I have discovered of value is to analyze sentiment moves in a stock ahead of the company’s earnings release.  In the case of Dell, I will use the piqqem sentiment index for Dell to see how sentiment has changed in the last quarter, for the months within that quarter, and from the end of the reporting quarter thru today.

 I’m looking for moves or changes that may foreshadow the earning release.  (piqqem leverages the ‘wisdom of crowds’ by allowing its users to vote on the price direction of a stock and then applies its own propriety factors to calculate sentiment for a security. In their model, -100 is the lowest and 100 is the highest sentiment).

Sentiment for Dell

Source Piqqem

The above chart shows Dell’s sentiment peaking at the end of November and then dropping by 14 pts thru the end of 2009.  Their sentiment has recovered back to zero today. Sentiment for the S&P was down 14 pts in the same period, so much of Dell’s downward movement can be attributed to market conditions.  On the Piqqem scale, Dell’s sentiment rating of 0 is considered a hold and its absolute sentiment indicates a lower quality stock. Will Apple (AAPL) continue its dominance of Dell or will Microsoft's (MSFT) Windows 7 be the catalyst for a PC buying spree? Only Dell knows, but their current sentiment points to lackluster results on Thursday.

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Hewlett Packard (HPQ) is scheduled to release Q1 earnings this Wednesday February 17th, after the market close.

Average analyst estimates for the Computer and Printer giant are $1.06/share in EPS and $30.01 billion in Revenue.  Twenty-Eight analysts track the stock with nine upward EPS revisions in the last 30 days and no downward EPS revisions in the last 30 days.

Last quarter, Hewlett Packard beat average analysts expectations by .01/share, 1.14/share vs. 1.13/share.

I always find this a tough period waiting to see if the company is going meet, exceed, or miss their earnings estimates.  One thing I have discovered of value is to analyze sentiment moves in a stock ahead of the company’s earnings release.  In the case of Hewlett Packard, I will use the piqqem sentiment index for Hewlett Packard to see how sentiment has changed in the last quarter, for the months within that quarter, and from the end of the reporting quarter thru today.

 I’m looking for moves or changes that may foreshadow the earning release.  (piqqem leverages the ‘wisdom of crowds’ by allowing its users to vote on the price direction of a stock and then applies its own propriety factors to calculate sentiment for a security. In their model, -100 is the lowest and 100 is the highest sentiment).

Sentiment for Hewlett Packard

Source Piqqem

The above chart shows Hewlett Packard’s sentiment peaking at the end of November and then dropping by 9 pts thru the end of the quarter.  Sentiment for the S&P was down 15 pts in the same period, so much of HP’s downward movement can be attributed to market conditions.  On the Piqqem scale, Hewlett Packard’s sentiment rating of 25.34 is considered a buy and its absolute sentiment indicates a high quality stock. Only Hewlett Packard knows their actual results, but their current sentiment points to Hewlett Packard releasing earnings in a narrow range around estimates on Wednesday.

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For the week ending February 12, 2009, JDS Uniphase (JDSU) saw its piqqem sentiment drop by 12 pts. Weekly movements in sentiment indicate short-term changes in the crowd perception of a stock. In the case of JDS Uniphase, the trend is strongly downward.

Change in sentiment provides a timing mechanism to understand underlying changes in a security potentially ahead of a price move. For example, a large increase in sentiment should be seen as positive even if the underlying stock has a low absolute sentiment, while a large decrease in sentiment should be seen as negative even if the underlying security has a high absolute sentiment.

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