Los Altos, California - Crowd Technologies, Inc. provider of the stock research site Piqqem, today announced the sentiment results for Apple Computer (AAPL) going into their earnings announcement on Tuesday July 20, 2010. In a stunning turn of events, sentiment for Apple has dropped 15 points to the lowest level in the past 15 months.

The above chart shows Apple’s sentiment dropping by 15 points from the beginning of the quarter thru today.   In comparison, sentiment for the Piqqem Technology Index rose 2 points in the same period, which means Apple’s decreasing sentiment was not strongly influenced by market forces. On the Piqqem scale, Apple’s sentiment rating of 34.60 is still considered positive and indicates a quality stock.

This drop in Apple’s sentiment is certainly a cause for concern. Apple has consistently been a top 3 rated company on Piqqem’s top rated list and now doesn’t appear in the top twenty-five.  At its peak, Apple had a sentiment rating of 58 at the beginning of the year. Is there any rational for the drop?

In analyzing the sentiment line, I can identify 2 primary issues. On April 29 Steve Jobs wrote his open letter regarding the state of Flash from Apple’s perspective and this corresponded to a 7 point drop in Apple’s sentiment. On June 24, Apple released the iPhone 4 which received some bad reviews and this corresponded to another 5 point drop in sentiment. As of now, both of these events remain more of a PR issue and Apple’s briefing last week about the iPhone 4 should put the company back on track.

Analysts Still Love Apple

Average analyst estimates for the iMac and iPhone giant are $3.10/share in EPS and $14.74 billion in Revenue.  40 analysts track the stock with 15 upward EPS revisions in the last 30 days and no downward EPS revisions in the last 30 days.  The 15 upward revisions is a real vote of confidence for the expected performance in the third quarter. Last quarter, Apple beat average analyst expectations by $.88 per share, $3.33/share vs. $2.45 per share. Apple’s share price also remains strong with Friday’s close of $249.90 being at 78% of its 52 week price range.  

Apple’s Sector, Hardware & Networking, Remains Strong

Apple is also part of the Piqqem Technology Sentiment Index which tracks sentiment for 28 technology stocks in the Hardware & Networking, Software & Gaming, Internet & Mobile, and Semiconductor Sectors.  Apple is part of the hardware and networking sector and it has shown growing strength and remains the strongest of the four technology sectors. So this is positive for Apple.

Previous Sentiment Results Ahead of Apple Earnings

Sentiment has proven to be a good indicator of upcoming earnings. In the above table, sentiment has remained positive to very positive in the previous 5 quarters for Apple. This positive sentiment has correctly forecasted the general earnings result. Last quarter sentiment for Apple predicted a great quarter and the company delivered a great quarter.

Q3 Earnings – What Does it All Mean

The financial analysts remain bullish on Apple and the stock price closed Friday in the upper 25% of its 52 price range. Apple’s recent product releases of the iPhone 4 and the iPad have had phenomenal success. But even with this momentum, something has changed. In the end, only Apple knows their actual results and current sentiment points to the iMac & iPhone giant delivering good results on Tuesday, but there may be clouds forming for the future – a future where Apple is no longer the darling underdog, but the 700 pound gorilla that everyone else is gunning for.

About Piqqem Sentiment

Piqqem uses a -100 to 100 scale and leverages the wisdom of crowds and its own proprietary algorithms to capture and calculate sentiment. Any sentiment rating above 25 is considered positive, below 0 is considered negative, while 0-25 is considered neutral. Changes in sentiment are also crucial in understanding and interpreting a company’s sentiment ahead of an event like earnings.  Finally, market forces need to be considered to make sure overall market sentiment changes are not overly influencing a stock’s individual sentiment.

About the Author

Jett Winter is CEO of Crowd Technologies, Inc. a company that develops applications that leverage the wisdom of crowds. Their first major application is Piqqem which captures, processes, and presents sentiment data on the future price and price direction of publicly traded securities. Copyright (C) 2010 Crowd Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Apple, and the Apple logo are registered trademarks of Apple Inc. in the U.S. and/or other countries.

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Jett Winter
CEO
Crowd Technologies
650-619-9000
United States
jett@piqqem.com

10 comments

Google  (GOOG) is scheduled to release Q2 earnings this Thursday July 15th, after the market close. Average analyst estimates for the Search giant are $6.53/share in EPS and $4.99 billion in Revenue.  Thirty-six analysts track the stock with two upward EPS revisions in the last 30 days and three downward EPS revision in the last 30 days. Last quarter, Google beat average analyst expectations by.16/share, 6.76/share vs. 6.60/share.

Now let’s look at the sentiment for Google to see if we can learn anything ahead of their earnings release.  We will use sentiment captured by Piqqem to determine Google’s outlook for this quarter’s earnings. Piqqem uses a -100 to 100 scale and leverages the wisdom of crowds and its own proprietary algorithms to capture and calculate sentiment. Last quarter sentiment for Google predicted a ho-hum quarter and the company delivered a ho-hum quarter.

Previous Google Sentiment Results

Any sentiment rating above 25 is considered positive, below 0 is considered negative, while 0-25 is considered neutral. Changes in sentiment are also crucial in understanding and interpreting a company’s sentiment ahead of an event like earnings.  Finally, market forces need to be considered to make sure overall market sentiment changes are not overly influencing a stock’s individual sentiment.

Google is also part of the Piqqem Technology Sentiment Index which tracks sentiment for 28 technology stocks in the Hardware & Networking, Software & Gaming, Internet & Mobile, and Semiconductor Sectors.  Sentiment for the internet & mobile sector has shown growing strength, but remains the weakest technology sector behind Hardware, Semiconductor, and Software. So this is neutral for Google.

 Sentiment for Google

Source Piqqem

Google’s sentiment has been stuck in a lower range of high 20’s vs. low 40’s at the end of last year ever since the start of the Apple (AAPL) wars.

The above chart shows Google’s sentiment as relatively flat from the beginning of the quarter thru today.  Sentiment did rebound from a low of 22.88 on April 30 to a high of 29.65. As a comparison, sentiment for the Piqqem Technology Index rose 2 pts in the same period, which means Google’s flat sentiment was not strongly influenced by market forces. On the Piqqem scale, Google’s sentiment rating of 27.12 is considered positive and its absolute sentiment indicates a quality stock. Only Google knows their actual results, but current sentiment points to the Search giant delivering lackluster results on Thursday.

I will be posting earnings reports next week on IBM (IBM), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Yahoo! (YHOO), EMC (EMC), and Netflix (NFLX) so check back to see these results and if you have an opinion you can vote at Piqqem.

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AMD  (AMD) is scheduled to release Q2 earnings this Thursday July 15th, after the market close. Average analyst estimates for the Chip maker are $.06/share in EPS and $1.55 billion in Revenue.  Twenty-Five analysts track the stock with one upward EPS revision in the last 30 days and one downward EPS revision in the last 30 days. Last quarter, AMD beat average analyst expectations by.13/share, .09/share vs.  (.04)/share.

Now let’s look at the sentiment for AMD to see if we can learn anything ahead of their earnings release.  We will use sentiment captured by Piqqem to determine AMD’s outlook for this quarter’s earnings. Piqqem uses a -100 to 100 scale and leverages the wisdom of crowds and its own proprietary algorithms to capture and calculate sentiment. Last quarter sentiment for AMD predicted a great quarter and the company delivered.

Previous AMD Sentiment Results

Any sentiment rating above 25 is considered positive, below 0 is considered negative, while 0-25 is considered neutral. Changes in sentiment are also crucial in understanding and interpreting a company’s sentiment ahead of an event like earnings.  Finally, market forces need to be considered to make sure overall market sentiment changes are not overly influencing a stock’s individual sentiment.

AMD is also part of the Piqqem Technology Sentiment Index which tracks sentiment for 28 technology stocks in the Hardware & Networking, Software & Gaming, Internet & Mobile, and Semiconductor Sectors.  Sentiment for the semiconductor sector has shown growing strength recently which is also positive for AMD.

 Sentiment for AMD

Source Piqqem

Can AMD deliver results as impressive as Intel (INTC)?

The above chart shows AMD’s sentiment increasing by 7 pts from the beginning of the quarter thru today.  As a comparison, sentiment for the Piqqem Technology Index rose 2 pts in the same period, which means AMD’s increase in sentiment was independent of market forces. On the Piqqem scale, AMD’s sentiment rating of 26.43 is considered positive and its absolute sentiment indicates a quality stock. Only AMD knows their actual results, but current sentiment points to the Chip maker delivering strong results on Thursday.

I will be posting earnings reports next week on IBM (IBM), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Yahoo! (YHOO), EMC (EMC), and Netflix (NFLX) so check back to see these results and if you have an opinion you can vote at Piqqem.

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Intel  (INTC) is scheduled to release Q2 earnings this Tuesday July 13th, after the market close. Average analyst estimates for the Chip giant are $.43/share in EPS and $10.25 billion in Revenue.  Forty-four analysts track the stock with two upward EPS revisions in the last 30 days and one downward EPS revision in the last 30 days. Last quarter, Intel beat average analyst expectations by.05/share, .43/share vs. .38/share.

Now let’s look at the sentiment for Intel to see if we can learn anything ahead of their earnings release.  We will use sentiment captured by Piqqem to determine Intel’s outlook for this quarter’s earnings. Piqqem uses a -100 to 100 scale and leverages the wisdom of crowds and its own proprietary algorithms to capture and calculate sentiment. Last quarter sentiment for Intel predicted a good quarter and the company delivered.

Previous Intel Sentiment Results

Any sentiment rating above 25 is considered positive, below 0 is considered negative, while 0-25 is considered neutral. Changes in sentiment are also crucial in understanding and interpreting a company’s sentiment ahead of an event like earnings.  Finally, market forces need to be considered to make sure overall market sentiment changes are not overly influencing a stock’s individual sentiment.

Intel is also part of the Piqqem Technology Sentiment Index which tracks sentiment for 28 technology stocks in the Hardware & Networking, Software & Gaming, Internet & Mobile, and Semiconductor Sectors.  Sentiment for the semiconductor sector has shown growing strength recently which is also positive for Intel.

 Sentiment for Intel

Source Piqqem

Will Intel rise to the heights of Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG), or is Intel ready to get stuck in a trading range with the likes of Oracle (ORCL)?

The above chart shows Intel’s sentiment decreasing by 2 pts from the beginning of the quarter thru today.  As a comparison, sentiment for the Piqqem Technology Index rose 2 pts in the same period, which means Intel’s drop in sentiment was not strongly influenced by market forces. On the Piqqem scale, Intel’s sentiment rating of 40.70 is considered very positive and its absolute sentiment indicates a high quality stock. Only Intel knows their actual results, but current sentiment points to the Chip giant delivering strong results on Tuesday.

I will be posting earnings reports on AMD and Google tomorrow so check back to see these results and if you have an opinion you can vote at Piqqem.

Comment

Piqqem released its weekly technology sentiment update for the week ending July 9, 2010, and the overall Piqqem technology index was higher lead by a strong the semiconductor sector. The semiconductor index remains above the 9 week moving average for the third straight week and points to bullish sentiment for semiconductor stocks.  The current semiconductor sentiment is just below 30. A sentiment rating of 25 and above is considered positive.  Intel (INTC) and SanDisk (SNDK) are the leaders in the semiconductor sector each with sentiment ratings at 38.50.

Intel & AMD Earnings this Week

The strong sentiment in semiconductor should provide a positive lift for Intel and AMD who are scheduled to release earnings this week. Intel is scheduled to release earnings on July 13, while AMD is scheduled to release earnings on July 15. I will be publishing earnings reports on each of these securities this week, so check back to see the results and if you have an opinion you can vote at Piqqem.

About the Piqqem Technology Sentiment Index

Piqqem tracks sentiment on all securities including stocks, mutual funds, ETFs, and major market indices. The Piqqem sentiment scale runs from 100 on the high end to -100 on the low end.  The actual Piqqem Technology Sentiment Index is proprietary blend of technology stocks covering the hardware, internet & mobile, software & gaming, and semiconductor sectors.

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Today’s major US indices ended mixed with the Dow Jones down 20.18pts, the Nasdaq up .36 pts, and the S&P 500 down 1.97 pts. Stocks started strong with the Dow briefly breaking the 10,300 level, but selling set in as Greece’s debt was downgraded by Moody’s to junk status. On the technology front, the Piqqem Technology Sentiment Index was up .82 and finished in positive territory at 27.98pts lead by strong sentiment gains in the software and gaming sector.  Salesforce.com (CRM) and Oracle (ORCL) lead the charge with nice gains. CRM gained 5.49 to end at 24.24, while ORCL added 1.95 to end at 39.61. A sentiment rating of 25 and above is considered positive.

About the Piqqem Technology Sentiment Index

Piqqem tracks sentiment on all securities including stocks, mutual funds, ETFs, and major market indices. The Piqqem sentiment scale runs from 100 on the high end to -100 on the low end.  The actual Piqqem Technology Sentiment Index is proprietary blend of technology stocks covering the hardware & networking, internet & mobile, software & gaming, and semiconductor sectors.

Comment

Piqqem released its weekly technology sentiment update for the week ending June 11, 2010, and although the overall Piqqem technology index was relatively flat, the semiconductor sector showed a sharp decline and is now down 10 points from its high on April 16.  This index seemed to forecast the overall decline in the market with the worst May in history. Broadcom (BRCD) and Sandisk (SNDK) lead the semiconductor index lower this week.  Within the technology sectors, the semiconductor index was down 1.50 to end at 26.46, software and gaming was down .97 to end at 28.54, hardware and networking was down .44 to end at 31.05, and finally internet and mobile rose .17 to finish at 22.59. A sentiment rating of 25 and above is considered positive.  The piqqem sentiment index has been heading down for the entire year. The big question is whether sentiment will reverse its trend and move positive in spite of the European debt crisis and the weak job market. 

Top Technology Stocks

Leaders within each sector included: Apple (AAPL) leading the hardware and networking sector, eBay (EBAY) leading the internet sector, Activision (ATVI) leading the Software and Gaming, and Intel (INTC) leading the semiconductor sector.

About the Piqqem Technology Sentiment Index

Piqqem tracks sentiment on all securities including stocks, mutual funds, ETFs, and major market indices. The Piqqem sentiment scale runs from 100 on the high end to -100 on the low end.  The actual Piqqem Technology Sentiment Index is proprietary blend of technology stocks covering the hardware, internet & mobile, software & gaming, and semiconductor sectors.

Comment

Piqqem released its weekly technology sentiment for the week ending May 28, 2010, and although the overall Piqqem technology sentiment index was flat, the internet and mobile sector showed a sharp increase.  After another week of high volatility in the US equity markets, technology sentiment remained flat at 27.16. Within the technology sectors, hardware & networking was down 1.30 to end at 31.36, software and gaming was down .21 to end at 28.84, semiconductor was down .11 to end at 27.83, and finally internet and mobile rose 1.64 to finish at 20.61. A sentiment rating of 25 and above is considered positive.

Sentiment Winners & Losers

Within the technology index, Amazon (AMZN) and eBay (EBAY) led the internet sector higher, while Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Intel (INTC), and Microsoft (MSFT) all headed lower.

About the Piqqem Technology Sentiment Index

Piqqem tracks sentiment on all securities including stocks, mutual funds, ETFs, and major market indices. The Piqqem sentiment scale runs from 100 on the high end to -100 on the low end.  The actual Piqqem Technology Sentiment Index is proprietary blend of technology stocks covering the hardware, internet & mobile, software & gaming, and semiconductor sectors.

Comment

Piqqem released its weekly sentiment for the week ending May 21, 2010, and it shows a surprisingly positive trend in overall sentiment.  After a down week with increasing volatility in the US equity markets, sentiment for all major indices was up with the exception of the Dow Jones Industrial Average which was down for the week. Overall market sentiment is at 9.73 which remains relatively weak. A sentiment rating of 25 and above is considered positive.  The piqqem sentiment index has been heading down for the entire year. The big question is whether sentiment will continue to trend positive in light of the European debt crisis.   In a neutral signal for the week, there was 1 stock increasing in sentiment for every 1 stocks decreasing in sentiment.

This Week’s Sentiment Winners & Losers

For individual stocks, the weekly winners included eBay (EBAY) and Sony (SNE), while the stocks dropping most in sentiment included Caterpillar (CAT) and Protein Design Labs (PDLI).

About the Piqqem Market Sentiment Index

Piqqem tracks sentiment on all securities including stocks, mutual funds, ETFs, and major market indices. The Piqqem sentiment scale runs from 100 on the high end to -100 on the low end.  The actual Piqqem Market Sentiment Index is proprietary blend of multiple factors including sentiment specific to the four major indices: Dow Jones 30(.DJI), S&P 500 (.INX), Nasdaq 100 (.IXIC), Russell 2000 (IWM).

Comment

Salesforce.com  (CRM) is scheduled to release Q1 earnings this Thursday May 20th, after the market close. Average analyst estimates for the SaaS provider are $.30/share in EPS and $367.86 million in Revenue.  Thirty-two analysts track the stock with three upward EPS revisions in the last 30 days and no downward EPS revisions in the last 30 days. Last quarter, Salesforce.com beat average analyst expectations by.01/share, .16/share vs. .15/share.

Now let’s look at the sentiment for Salesforce.com to see if we can learn anything ahead of their earnings release.  We will use sentiment captured by Piqqem to determine Salesforce.com’s outlook for this quarter’s earnings. Piqqem uses a -100 to 100 scale and leverages the wisdom of crowds and its own proprietary algorithms to capture and calculate sentiment. Last quarter sentiment for Salesforce.com predicted a good quarter and the company delivered. This quarter, their sentiment has drifted downward and indicates some cause for concern.

Any sentiment rating above 25 is considered positive, below 0 is considered negative, while 0-25 is considered neutral. Changes in sentiment are also crucial in understanding and interpreting a companies’ sentiment ahead of an event like earnings.  Finally, market forces need to be considered to make sure overall market sentiment changes are not overly influencing a stock’s individual sentiment.

Salesforce.com is also part of the Piqqem Technology Sentiment Index which tracks sentiment for 28 technology stocks in the Hardware & Networking, Software & Gaming, Internet & Mobile, and Semiconductor Sectors. Users can simulate historical and forward looking trades of Salesforce.com using different sentiment triggers in Piqqem’s Portfolio offering.

Sentiment for Salesforce.com

Source Piqqem

Will Salesforce.com rise to the heights of Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG), or is Salesforce.com ready to get stuck in a trading range with the likes of Oracle (ORCL)?

The above chart shows Salesforce.com’s sentiment decreasing by 9 pts from the beginning of the quarter thru today.  As a comparison, sentiment for the NASDAQ index dropped 1 pts in the same period, which means Salesforce.com’s drop in sentiment was not strongly influenced by market forces. On the Piqqem scale, Salesforce.com’s sentiment rating of 21.20 is considered neutral and its absolute sentiment indicates a moderate quality stock. Only Salesforce.com knows their actual results, but current sentiment points to the SaaS provider delivering lackluster results on Thursday.

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